MIAMI, Florida, February 24, 2005--
Alisa Skulpong considers herself pretty savvy about
bargain vacations. So when she started looking for
a seven-day cruise to Alaska this summer, she expected
to pay around $1,000, the amount she spent two years
ago.
Skulpong was in for a surprise;
the trip now costs $1,400, even through bargain
retailer Costco Wholesale Corp.
"If you're looking for a specific
cruise itinerary, you need to book 10 months to
a year in advance to get it. It's hard to get what
you want at the price you want," said the legal
assistant from Los Angeles, who booked the trip
anyway.
Cruise prices are climbing, but
that's not deterring vacationers who are buying
tickets at a rapidly growing pace -- extending the
industry's rebound from the recession and September
11, 2001, terror attacks that devastated the travel
business and forced cruise operators to slash their
prices. About halfway through the heaviest booking
quarter of the year, cruise lines say they are making
reservations even faster than in 2004 despite the
higher prices.
Passengers are inching closer to
spending as much on tickets and extras on board
as they did during the boom times of 1999 and 2000,
analysts said. Carnival Corp. & plc, the world's
largest cruise company, had its most profitable
year ever in 2004 and expects to do better this
year. No. 2 Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. and smaller
players also report strong demand.
"I think people are generally
feeling optimistic about the economy. It's been
nice and cold across the country, which always encourages
people to take a (cruise) vacation," said Andy
Stuart, NCL Corp. Ltd.'s executive vice president
of marketing, sales and passenger services. NCL
operates Norwegian Cruise Line, NCL America and
Orient Lines.
Travel agent Joe Canino said his
clients still seem willing to pay an extra $500
or $1,000 for the same trip they took a year or
two ago.
"They question why it's higher,
but it doesn't deter them," said Canino, a
cruise expert at Hebron Travel in Hebron, Connecticut.
Cruise.com, one of the largest online
cruise travel agencies, has been selling trips at
prices averaging about 20 percent higher than last
year, managing director Anthony Hamawy said.
After expected increases through
the rest of this year, Carnival's average ticket
prices should be about 3 percentage points below
the peak levels before the terror attacks, said
Robin Farley with UBS Investment Research.
Net revenue yields measure the average
profit cruise lines get from each passenger per
day. Carnival's are expected to rise 4 percent to
6 percent this year. Last year, they were $170.32,
up from $156.38 in 2003 and $166.44 in 2001. Carnival
did not publish those numbers before 2001, a company
spokesman said.
Because fewer new ships will be
added this year, prices are also driven higher,
analysts said.
Looking for bargains
Despite rising prices, many people contend cruises
are still a better value than they were 20 years
ago as ships get bigger and can take on more passengers.
Elmer Walter said he and his wife
paid about $1,700 for their first cruise, a four-day
trip in the Caribbean in 1987. The Mesquite, Texas,
couple paid $1,428 for a seven-day Caribbean cruise
in a similar cabin two years ago, although that
trip is up to about $2,000 now.
Traveler Skulpong agreed that cruising
is still a good value.
"I still think that it's overall
less than I would pay if I had to fly up there,
get a hotel room and pay for three meals a day,"
she said.
Others say bargains can still be
found, especially on the Internet.
"There are just so many nuances
out there about cruise prices that the experienced
cruiser knows how to take advantage of them,"
said Robert Bluestone, a retired banker from Port
St. Lucie who takes a cruise about every three months.
Bluestone usually calls the cruise
line first to find out the list price, and then
hits discount online travel agencies, such as Cruisequick.com.
A recent search on the bare-bones Web site turned
up Caribbean trips on the Carnival Cruise Lines
brand for as little as $100 a day per person, including
a cabin, food and entertainment.
Ray Weiller, an owner of Cruisequick,
said that while his company has made fewer bookings
so far this year, revenues have been about the same
because of higher ticket prices.
"We're now starting to see
people booking for 2006 because they can't get anything
this year," he said.
The Carnival group and Royal Caribbean
both said the growth has been across major markets,
including the Caribbean, Europe and Alaska. Europe
has been particularly strong because of the dollar's
weakness against the euro. Americans have been booking
European cruises in dollars to avoid the unfavorable
exchange rate they would face if they rented hotel
rooms and bought meals in euros.
Shares of Carnival, which controls
nearly half the global cruise market, are trading
in the $53 range. That's off a 52-week high of nearly
$60, but well above its low of $40.
To preserve their higher prices,
the major cruise lines have made it tougher or impossible
for low-cost Web sites to give passengers discounts.
The lines didn't want to cheapen their brand value
and have consumers booking travel based only on
the lowest price, a problem experienced by airlines.
So Carnival Cruise Lines and Royal Caribbean now
require travel agencies to advertise cruises at
list price. Carnival still lets agencies give discounts
as long as they aren't publicized, but Royal Caribbean
doesn't.
"I think the days of cheap
cruises that we saw after 9/11 are gone," Canino
said.
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